The gold price has bounced back in todays trading session after yesterday’s losses which was in part to the strength of the US dollar and for now it seems as if the precious metal has plenty of support to keep it above the $1300 mark.
The support should remain until at least march the 1st which is the deadline for US president Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart to sign a trade agreement and if this doesn’t eventuate, the gold price should receive a significant boost as global uncertainty sets in.
Beyond the trade talks deadline, the outlook for US interest rates is likely to be another major driver of gold and with many segments of the market now pricing in no rate hikes for the rest of the year, its looking good for gold.
Some analysts are now predicting that the Fed may even have to cut interest rates to head off a recession which is a big shift in temperament as only a few months ago, the consensus was the Fed would hike rates at least 2 times this year.
Higher rates in the US are always negative for gold as it has no yield bearing appeal.
If the wider market comes to the belief the Fed will cut rates this may be the catalyst for the price to push significantly higher
“The dovish tone from the Fed may drive a more bullish case for gold, silver, and platinum over the next 12 months. This bullish case accounts for zero rate hikes this year by the Fed, which is the current consensus being priced by fixed-income markets. In fact, markets are currently pricing in the probability of a rate cut by year end,” said Maxwell Gold, director, investment strategist, with Aberdeen Standard Investments, in his February note to clients.
“These accommodative comments by the Fed have essentially put a cap on real interest rates as well as the dollar rally from 2018. Gold historically performs well when real rates are below 2% and real rates have retreated back below 1% in recent weeks,” he said.
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