Gold is under further pressure today on rate hike expectations in the US and things are set to get worse if tomorrows non-farm payrolls figure hits the market on, or above expectations.
Although the market expects the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates next week, all eyes will be on the jobs data tomorrow with a strong reading all but guaranteeing a rate hike.
“If the official U.S. labor market data turns out to be good when they are published Friday, nothing is likely to prevent the Fed from raising interest rates next week. According to the Fed fund futures, a rate increase is now completely priced in,” said Carsten Fritsch fromCommerzbank,
“What is more, the gold price fell below the technically important 100-day moving average yesterday, which sparked technical follow-up selling and exacerbated the price slide,” he added.
Although gold is likely to stay under pressure for the foreseeable future, some predict there will be a rebound in the price with gold moving towards $1,400 before the end of the year.
The elections coming up in Europe as well as some of Donald Trump’s protectionist policies, will be the catalyst for golds rebound according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch,
"While tighter monetary policy is not bullish, inflation and a range of uncertainties, including European elections and protectionism should support the yellow metal. As such, we see prices at $1,400 by year-end". they wrote,
"The decline in volatility across asset classes is particularly notable given some of the massive policy shifts currently under debate in the U.S. and Europe. In our view, the market seems to be ignoring the large and growing risks of U.S. or U.K. policy mistakes and the upcoming electoral cycle in Europe," they added.
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